Saturday, July 28, 2018

Dig into some stats

Table 1 shows the team batting averages of the Winning Teams and the Losing Teams from all 14 OW&AC league games this season:


WinnersLosersRun Diff
Game 14093895
Game 23744272
Game 34063859
Game 44793565
Game 54403723
Game 64063395
Game 73843914
Game 83254152
Game 94234041
Game 103873966
Game 113873691
Game 124153216
Game 133223712Hoop
Game 144213502
398.4377.5

In only five of the 14 games did the team with the higher team batting average lose, and one of those was "hoop-aided." Batting averages matter. Winning teams have an average of .398, losers: .377.

The average margin of victory this season has been 3.7 runs. Winning teams with lower batting averages have exceeded this margin only twice. There is a significant correlation between Average Differential and Run Differential. Trust me, don't make me publish the scatter plot.

Some notes:
1. This data was assembled with the players' BA as of today - not as of the day of the game.
2. These are not weighted averages so someone's .400 average from going 2-for-5 all season is weighted the same as someone else's 396 over 90 ABs.
3. The averages at the bottom are averages of averages of averages, so they are likely meaningless, but they help me make a point, so they are included.
4. I am a nerd.

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